Last year, according to the Consumer Confidence Index by GfK, the level of consumer sentiment of Ukrainians increased from 64.1 points in February 2022 to 83.9 points at the beginning of 2023. According to the analysts of the UTG company, such rapid changes in consumer attitudes are connected with the invasion of Russia in Ukraine and the beginning of military operations, which provoked a whole series of circumstances. But Ukrainians are confidently waiting for a better future after the end of the war, despite the negative assessment of the current state.

Overall, the Consumer Sentiment Index was higher in 2022 even compared to 2021, although it remains in negative values (less than 100). And in March 2022, the Index of consumer sentiment was at the peak of measurements and amounted to 92.4, which is 28.3 points higher than the indicator of February last year. In addition, this indicator of the Index was the highest since 2014, approaching the values of the fall of 2019, when it almost crossed the 100 mark (which would mean a transition to a positive assessment of the economic situation by the population). According to UTG analysts, this situation is connected with the fact that in March 2022, the Ukrainians maximally joined the struggle, making large purchases for the front. In addition, this paradoxical surge, in view of the war, is also connected with the economic expectations of Ukrainians in the long term. Namely, residents of Ukraine are more optimistic about the development of the economy in the long term than in the short term. Thus, expectations of development in the period up to five years are simply off the scale, reaching an indicator of 120.8. According to foreign experts, this is due to the fact that all Ukrainians are confident that the country will be able to repel Russia’s attack.

In addition, according to Kostyantyn Oliynyk, head of the Department of Strategic Consulting at UTG, changes in consumer attitudes are also associated with the following processes:

– The sudden movement of the population from the zone of active hostilities to calmer areas with a limited set of things in the cold season. Which led to a forced expansion of the wardrobe with light clothes and things during the onset of warm weather in April.

– Going abroad, which provoked a reduction in the number of residents of certain regions and the country in general.

– A decrease in the level of income in most categories of citizens.

– Rapid devaluation of the hryvnia and inflation. Which led to a massive buyout of warehouse stocks of portable electronics before revaluation.

– Excited demand for unusual products – flashlights, batteries, solar panels, portable charging stations, inverters, generators, stoves, heating systems and others.

– The unpredictability of tomorrow. Which led to the rejection of expensive purchases (apartments, cars, repairs, furniture, household appliances), the impossibility of traveling, and the balance of cash on hand.

– Rethinking the attitude of Ukrainians to the fundamental values of life. What led to the rejection of the formation of savings and the implementation of the concept of “here and now”.

All this, according to the expert’s forecasts, after Ukraine’s victory, will lead to the need for a sense of celebration, when Ukrainians will once again start updating their wardrobes, buying modern equipment, traveling, and making expensive purchases. Therefore, it can be assumed that high consumer sentiment will remain even after the end of hostilities.