Despite the difficulties, the UTG company continues to work for the development of the Ukrainian real estate market. The company’s analysts are constantly studying the situation. Thus, according to their data in the capital, taking into account the current level of income of the population, solvent demand is able to ensure the successful functioning of 2,313,033 sq.m of retail space. Whereas as of August 2023, 2,457,010 sq.m are already operating in Kyiv. And the commissioning of the declared projects will bring the surplus of retail space and the gradual redistribution of consumer flows between objects even closer. All this will lead to an increase in vacancy to 17% and a downward correction of rental rates.

The situation in the capital’s malls leads to increased competition, due to which there is a gradual decrease in rental rates. New projects with a total leasable area of more than 250,000 sq.m declared for opening in 2023-2024 can contribute even more to this. Among them: SEC White Lines (28,000 sq.m), New Ray (34,500 sq.m), April Mall (36,500 sq.m), BalticSky (20,000 sq.m), Ocean Mall (GLA = 110,000 sq.m), Lukiyanivka (47,052 sq.m) and other objects. But in a situation of market saturation, any opening of a new large-format SEC against the background of a limited assortment of active retailers affects the average market vacancy rate and makes it difficult to attract tenants. And the management companies have already faced a lot of difficulties, including: the total withdrawal of chains from Russia, the lack of a sufficient number of alternative international department stores on the vacated space, the closure of large-format international operators before the end of hostilities (Inditex, H&M, IKEA, M&S / GAP), uncertainty in the resumption of full-fledged work of entertainment operators (fitness centers, cinemas, shopping malls, bowling alleys, food establishments). Therefore, as analysts predict, there is a high probability of serious difficulties in filling large-format objects in the medium term (lack of anchors, department stores) and a great need for gallery reformatting or reconception in a number of commercial objects, including extreme solutions. Therefore, according to the forecasts of UTG experts, taking into account the current level of income and expenditure of the population, the vacancy rate in retail facilities may reach 17.0% by the end of 2024.

Such trends lead to forced modernization, redevelopment and reconceptualization of existing SECs. For example, developers have already started complex modernization of such SECs: Caravan, TsUM, Metrograd, Metropolis, Kvadrat Lukyanivka, Cosmo Multimall, Gorodok Gallery, Magellan, Globus , Marmalade, Dream Town, Silver Breeze, InSilver. And a number of owners have planned large-scale changes in the near future.