The turnover of the retail trade of Ukraine decreased

 

Despite the fact that the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has not yet compiled the results of retail trade turnover for 2022, market experts are already noting a decrease in this indicator due to the war. According to preliminary estimates by UTG company analysts, the volume of retail trade turnover in 2022 fell by almost 5 percentage points and in monetary terms decreased by UAH 53,058 million compared to the previous year. “It is clear that the results of the activities of retail operators depend on the general situation in the country. The reasons for the decline are primarily related to the military actions, which lead to crisis phenomena in the economy of Ukraine in general and the decline of retail trade in particular,” – emphasizes Kostyantyn Oliynyk, the head of the Department of Strategic Consulting of the UTG company.

According to his findings, in 2022, retail trade faced a whole bunch of negative consequences. First of all, this is a mass outflow of the population abroad, which led to a significant reduction in demand in the country. Also, because SECs were completely or partially destroyed as a result of shelling, many operators were forced to relocate from east to west, which provoked the collapse of RTO in the regions of hostilities and its growth in the peaceful regions of western Ukraine. Thirdly, the migration of well-to-do residents of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipro to safer regions showed a mismatch between the supply and demand of brands that are available in western Ukraine. Fourth, in 2022, there was a decline in the well-being of citizens against the background of a significant increase in the incomes of the military. Which led to the adaptation of consumer preferences. But the unpredictability of tomorrow has somehow led to the rejection of expensive purchases (apartments, cars, repairs, the purchase of furniture and household appliances), the impossibility of travel. At the same time, there are positive moments for retail. For example, the rapid evacuation of residents in the winter season with a limited set of warm clothes led to the forced purchase of lighter clothes and shoes. Also, the rapid devaluation of the hryvnia and inflation led to the mass purchase of remaining goods from warehouse stocks before revaluation. In addition, there was a frenetic demand for unusual goods: lanterns, solar panels, charging stations, generators, gas stoves, radiators, batteries, and more.

Taking into account all of the above, the expert predicts further optimization of trade networks and the number of operating stores, which will be expressed in the focus of operators exclusively on profitable objects and the closing of unprofitable ones. In addition, according to analysts, due to the lack of financing for development, the trend of slowing down the expansion of network operators and transferring risks to the developer will continue.