Interfax-Ukraine-the vacancy of shopping and entertainment centers in Kyiv decreased from 16.3% in 2023 to 15.2% at the end of the first half of 2024, said the head of the UTG legal consulting department, Konstantin Oleinik.

“At the end of last year, about 21.4% of the space were empty de facto, due to the closure of foreign department stores (IKEA, IndITEX, H&M and others). In fact, it was 16.3%vacant. Thanks to the opening of most foreign operators, a vacant break with actually closed stores has declined,” he said.

According to the UTG study, the vacancy level is higher in regional (18.4%) and district (17%), lower in specialized (9.8%) and district (7%) shopping centers.

The expert noted the trend of a decrease in the effective demand of the population. The increase in household expenses for housing and communal services and payment for the public utilities (according to the results of 2023 amounted to 18.8%and with an increase in electricity tariffs was observed), healthcare (4.7%), transport (4.8%), communication (4), communication (4 , 3%), education (3.6%). In total, these categories are washed out 36.1% from the family budget. Food and alcohol will accumulate 43.4% of expenses. The share of the trading network (clothing and shoes, electronics, home, cafes and restaurants, entertainment, other goods) in the structure of expenses is only 16.0% per family ($ 73.4 or 2,684.5 UAH per month). Inflation and rapid increase in prices lead to a reduction in individual savings (about 4.4% in 2023).

In general, the general savings and rationalization of costs are recorded, for the SEC market this entails a decrease in attendance and the correction of rental rates. Compared to the pre -war, rates for some commodity groups were doubled.

“Food supermarkets have turned into one of the few operators who can generate stable attendance and pay moderately high rental rates ($ 10-20/sq.m in August 2024), while most department stores, entertainment (cinemas, DRC), fitness centers are striving to the minimum fixed payment (about $ 1 for 1 sq.m) with a surcharge of % of the RTO (before the war, fixed payments from $ 2 to $ 12/sq.m prevailed, shifting the risks for the developer, ”he said.

According to the UTG study, taking into account the current level of incomes of the population, effective demand is able to ensure the successful functioning of 2 million 313 thousand square meters in the capital, and there were already 2 million 457 thousand square meters in the second quarter of 2024.

The competition continues to intensify: in 2024–2025, large shopping centers with a total area of ​​250 thousand square meters are declared to open. Among them is Ocean Mall (GLA 110 thousand sq.m), lukiyanivka (47 thousand sq.m), the White Lines (28 thousand sq.m), New Ray (34.5 thousand sq.m), April Mall (36.5 thousand sq.m), BalticSky (20 thousand sq.m). It is likely that most announced discoveries can be transferred to a later period.

According to Oleinik, the commissioning of declared projects will bring the surplus of retail sector and the gradual redistribution of consumer flows between objects, the growth of vacant and correction of lease rates towards the decrease. With the existing level of income and expenses of the population, the vacancy level can reach 17.0% in 2025.