Dynamics of the Ukrainian commercial real estate market

Traditionally, UTG company constantly analyzes the commercial real estate market of our country. According to the company’s experts, trade turnover in Ukraine continues to grow and recover both in the national currency and in dollar terms. Consumers are gradually returning to clothing and footwear stores after the population’s hype demand in 2022-2023 for life support systems to counteract the consequences of the war, shelling of power plants and boiler rooms, as well as after social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic has dried up.
Active retail development of the pre-war years, although it has slowed down, continues, as does the further saturation of the market with retail space. As a result, the dispersion of attendance between objects and the increase in vacancy rates are deepening. Neighborhood centers with everyday goods and services in their assortment are the least susceptible to fluctuations in attendance with an indicator of 680 people per day. Community SCs demonstrate greater stability in attendance with an indicator of 519 people per day compared to regional facilities with 318 visitors per day. And according to UTG analysts, after the end of the war, the decline in attendance will be especially noticeable in outdated, inconveniently located, and losing popularity facilities.
At the same time, vacancy is gradually leveling out between formats: in regional SCs it is 14.9%, in district SCs 13.9%, and in specialized ones – 10.1%. As before, the lowest vacancy rate is characteristic of district SCs with an indicator of 6.6%, located near the places of residence of the population.
In general, the market is experiencing a recovery in demand for retail space – the population is gradually accepting the protracted nature of the war and returning to shopping malls to buy new casual, sports, evening clothes and shoes. There is also an increase in visits to entertainment venues: cinemas, bowling alleys, theaters and concert programs. Demand is also growing for catering establishments: restaurants, cafes, bars with a corresponding increase in demand for operators’ services and their desire to open new stores.
