Due to the beginning of hostilities, the number of concluded purchase and sale agreements for apartments and individual houses in 2022 significantly decreased. According to the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, according to the results of 2021, 325,174 purchase and sale agreements for apartments and individual houses were concluded by state and private notaries. This was the highest figure since 2007 (348,772 agreements). But in 2022, the number of agreements decreased to 100,710, a drop of 69.0%. But in 2023, there was a partial recovery of the market by 71.4% or 172,638 agreements, which continued in 2024, when the growth was 3.4% or 178,439 agreements. It is expected that a significant part of the unfulfilled transactions (about 380,000) will be transformed into deferred demand and will be realized within 4-5 years after the end of the war.

According to the conclusions of UTG experts, against the background of the restoration of the number of concluded purchase and sale agreements, the structure of transactions is changing. Thus, before the war, the share of investment and speculative purchases was 40-50%, and in 2022-2024 their share increased to 85-90%. The increase in the volume of investment transactions is associated with the desire of citizens to improve their own housing needs and relocation from other regions of the country. Traditionally low housing supply in Ukraine (about 22.1 sq.m per person) contributes to the desire to increase the comfort of living when financial opportunities arise. Also, the devaluation of the national currency, inflation, the skeptical attitude of the population towards the banking system and the lack of affordable investment opportunities for the general population have turned real estate investments into a financial instrument for preserving savings / an alternative to increasing savings.

A similar situation is observed with the indicators of the number of concluded land purchase and sale agreements. Thus, due to the beginning of hostilities, market activity in 2022 significantly decreased, and the drop in land transactions amounted to 53.4%. But the shelling of critical infrastructure facilities led to an increase in the purchase of private houses by the population to create autonomous “fortresses” with their own generators, heating, satellite Internet and storage. That is why in 2023 the number of agreements increased by 76.3% to 307,622 transactions. And in the past 2024, according to the Ministry of Justice, a record 393,217 land alienation contracts were concluded by state and private notaries in Ukraine. At the same time, in the structure of the contracts, 69.6% are occupied by purchase and sale contracts, 0.2% – exchange contracts and 30.1% – gift contracts.

According to the conclusions of the company’s experts, the high demand for private home ownership and land plots, which began during the coronavirus pandemic for social distancing, has additionally increased after the enemy regularly damaged critical infrastructure elements. At the same time, there is a massive re-registration of property owners as women due to the introduction by the state of levers of administrative influence on conscripts who have left abroad illegally.

Against the background of an increase in the number of concluded purchase and sale agreements and a change in the structure of transactions in the housing market, the volume and actual number of new mortgage loans issued relative to the total number of sales remains at a minimum level and is about 4.5%. According to statistics, as of November 19, 2024, Ukrainians took out 14,216 “e-Housing” (“eOselya”) loans for the amount of UAH 22.9 billion. Among them: the share of military personnel was 28.9%, law enforcement officers – 21.8%, teachers – 8.9%, doctors – 8.4%, employees of the State Emergency Service – 5.5%, scientists – 2.0%, IDPs – 1.8%, who can receive the State preferential mortgage “e-Housing” at 3-7% per annum for up to 20 years. Most often, housing under the “e-Housing” program is purchased in the Kyiv region (3010 contracts) and Kyiv (2057 contracts). Also, starting from January 2024, the program will allow you to buy private houses, duplexes and townhouses. Ukrainians have already purchased 140 such objects.

If we consider the structure of mortgage loans, 70% of them are issued on the secondary market, and only 30% on the primary one. But in the future, the share of the secondary market is planned to be reduced. In total, 44 developers have joined the “e-Housing” program. The partner banks of “e-Housing” are: Oschadbank (its share is 42%), Privatbank (30.1%), Ukrgasbank (23.9%), Sky Bank (1.9%), Sense Bank (1.0%), Globus (0.4%), UkrExIm (0.4%), Credit Dnipro (0.3%), MTB, TASKOMBANK

According to analysts, the general underdevelopment of the mortgage market persists, including due to the shortage of solvent borrowers, strict lending conditions, and low level of creditor protection. The state preferential mortgage “e-Housing” is trying to revive the market, attract more banks, developers, and buyers to the primary market (including individual houses). But the almost complete absence of acceptable opportunities for real buyers to use financial “leverage” leads to the fact that the number of mortgage loans remains at a minimum level. Therefore, the demand for deferrals from developers remains relevant.