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Retail real estate market in 2024: results and forecasts from UTG

Despite all the challenges of wartime, the retail real estate market continued its work in 2024. Developers and retailers adapted to work in difficult conditions as much as possible and almost reached pre-war indicators. So, in 2024, a new SC Epicentr Green Gallery with an area of ​​​​62 thousand sq.m was opened in the Kyiv region. Small SCs were also put into operation in Odessa, Uzhgorod and Kamianets-Podilskyi.

Against the background of maintaining the total supply of retail space, the vacancy rate of shopping and entertainment centers in Kyiv decreased from 16.3% in 2023 to about 15% by the end of 2024. Traffic in many shopping centers returned to the pre-war period and even increased, amounting to 383 people per 1,000 sq.m of GLA in December 2024. This primarily applies to the western regions and Kyiv. Of course, a significant part of the operators, and with them the shopping centers, suffered in the South and East of the country. But this year, those international operators who did not plan to open their brands at all until the end of the war, such as H&M and Inditex brands, who assessed the balance of risks and demand and decided to start work during the war period, returned to Ukraine. In this way, retailers show an example that life goes on and it is necessary to continue serving the population, giving joy, even in conditions of systemic sirens.

Similarly, the UTG company, which turned 23 in November 2024, did not stop cooperating with developers and retailers in creating new real estate projects and leasing retail space. In 2024, UTG had exclusive rights to recruit tenants in 6 shopping centers with a total area of ​​350 thousand sq.m. These are both new facilities: White Lines SEC, and Sofia Mall in Kyiv, Brigantina SEC in Vinnytsia, Proskuriv Plaza SEC and Temp SEC in Khmelnytskyi, Pokrovsky in Izmail, and existing ones that decided to be renovated – Global Ua SEC in Zhytomyr, Sofia mall SEC in Kyiv, Odis SEC in Izmail, ITown SEC in Odessa.

According to UTG experts, new international operators will appear on the Ukrainian market in the near future, with whom active negotiations are underway. And later we will see such brands as UNIQLO, Kiabi and Pepco in the SEC. And to meet the demand of retailers in 2025, nine new shopping centers with a total area of ​​​​about 210 thousand sq.m are planned to open in Kyiv. Among them are such objects as: Ocean Mall, Baltic Sky, InterGal City Venice Mall and others. But, as UTG experts predict, the opening dates of new shopping centers may be postponed due to blackouts, security risks, lack of labor and other reasons. Therefore, after the cessation of active hostilities, taking into account the growing demand from retailers against the background of an extremely low volume of new offers from SECs, the retail real estate market will observe a further gradual decrease in vacancy and an increase in rental rates. There will also be a gradual redistribution of consumer flows between objects and a change in the interests of developers – they will consider other regions, new segments and alternative industries.